Keir Starmer's Backers Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry
Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.
Major Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Procedure
Several figures on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour hierarchy reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
Several sources also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a significant challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.
The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an offensive online group.
