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Australia captain Pat Cummins has admitted that his participation in the opening Ashes Test appears unlikely due to persistent injury concerns.

Recent reports from Australia had indicated that Cummins might be ruled out of the entire series, though the fast bowler himself has now provided a more detailed update on his situation.

Injury Timeline

The 32-year-old has been battling with a back stress injury that has prevented his participation since his last professional game in July.

While Cummins has restarted running training, he has yet to commence bowling as part of his rehabilitation program.

"I wouldn't put a percentage on it, but I'd say probably less likely than likely," commented Cummins. "My bowling preparation begins next week, so approximately a couple of weeks away from wearing the spikes and delivering on turf."

Bowling Preparation

Australia coach Andrew McDonald had previously indicated that Cummins would need a bare minimum of four weeks of net sessions to have any chance of playing in the first Test, scheduled to begin on November 21.

Cummins supported this assessment, explaining: "You'd want at least approximately a month in the nets. If you play a Test match, you want to ensure you're able to bowl 20 overs in a day without worry."

Team Consequences

Given the compressed timeframe, there are also doubts about Cummins' availability for the second Test in Brisbane on December 4.

Should Cummins be unfit, former captain Steve Smith is expected to lead the side, with Scott Boland possibly stepping in in the bowling attack.

The hosts have held the Ashes urn since 2018, while England are without a Test victory in Australia since 2011.

Historical Context

Cummins' current injury concerns mirror challenges from earlier in his successful career. He made his Test debut as an 18-year-old in 2011 against South Africa, becoming the youngest-ever player to take a five-for in an innings at that time.

However, his impressive debut proved to be a misleading start, as Cummins experienced six years before his second Test appearance due to multiple stress fractures in his spine.

Career Achievements

When healthy, Cummins has proven himself as one of cricket's elite fast bowlers. The 32-year-old has taken 309 Test dismissals at an impressive average of 22.10.

His record in Australia is even more formidable, with 177 wickets at 19.92, while he has claimed 91 wickets against England in just 19 matches.

In the most recent Ashes series in 2023, Cummins played in all five Tests, taking 18 wickets and establishing his value to the Australian side.

As skipper, Cummins enjoyed a successful 2023, taking six wickets in Australia's triumphant World Test Championship final and starring in their 50-over World Cup final victory against India.

He remains the only leader in Test history to win the World Test Championship, World Cup, and an Ashes series.

Squad Situation

England also face their own fitness concerns with captain Ben Stokes, who has been troubled by a shoulder injury since the Test series against India.

Both teams will be monitoring their key players closely as the much-anticipated Ashes series approaches.